Super Tuesday GOP Primaries

There are a number of good articles out there with detailed analyses on Super Tuesday primaries. People can read those if you want a more in depth analyses.
I just want to point out a few key things for the super Tuesday races tomorrow.

1. Yes, with no one dropping out from the remaining group of 5 candidates, Donald Trump is still poised to win the majority of the states, possibly 8-10 of them, or more. With votes split among Cruz, Rubio, Kaisch and Carson, no single person can fight against Trump now.

2. Ted Cruz must win Texas, his home state. If he scores anything less than the #1 spot, his campaign will be in serious trouble. If you can’t win in your home state Texas, where else can you win? Texas is the single most important state for the Cruz Campaign.

3. Marco Rubio has a very narrow window to consolidate support, 2 weeks. If Ted Cruz drops out after Super Tuesday, possibly along with Carson (I don’t know why he’s still in the race anyway), Marco has two weeks of time to consolidate support needed before the March 15 Florida Primary. If Marco can’t win Florida, his campaign will be in trouble just like Cruz’s. Rubio hasn’t won a single state, he must do well in at least 1-2 states on Super Tuesday to gather momentum forward.

4. John Kaisch also must win his home state Ohio on March 15. He seems to be doing well over there with significant lead over Trump. However, if he doesn’t do well in a number of mid-western and moderate northeastern states before March 15, it’s questionable if he has a path forward, even if he wins Ohio.

Either candidates drop out to let the last remaining alternative to Trump consolidate support to go against Trump, or they can choose to stay in the race until the bitter end. In a scenario where no single candidates, including Trump, has the majority of delegates needed to be nominated, a brokered convention would become more and more likely.

In a brokered convention, party establishment/insiders likely would choose someone more conventional than Trump. However, even if that happens, and someone other than Trump is nominated at the brokered convention, the GOP could be severely hurt due to the self-inflicted wound, and a divided party would be less effective in fighting against the democrats during General Election in November. And, if Clinton emerges as the definite winner from the Super Tuesday democratic primaries, she would have 4-5 months to spend attacking the Republicans, while not having to worry about any intra-party opponents.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: